Geopolitical Chess: Greek Shipping Firms Exit Russian Oil Trade, Posing New Challenges for Moscow

Three major Greek shipping companies have stopped transporting Russian oil to avoid US sanctions imposed on individual Russian tankers, — Reuters

In a strategic move, three major Greek shipping companies—Minerva Marine, Thenamaris, and TMS Tankers—have ceased transporting Russian oil in recent weeks. This decision, reportedly made to evade potential U.S. sanctions on shipping firms involved in Russian oil transportation, adds a new layer of complexity to the ongoing geopolitical battle surrounding Russian oil exports.

This development is poised to impact Russia significantly, as it narrows the pool of shipping firms willing to transport its oil. The three Greek companies, once active shippers of Russian oil until September-October, have scaled down their involvement, dealing a potential blow to Moscow’s oil revenues. Analysts suggest that Russia has already been breaching the OPEC+ quota, producing more oil than allowed, and the reduction in available shipping options may exacerbate the situation.

Last year was a record for Russian shipborne oil exports, thanks to Greek shipping oligarchs moving their ships to help Putin when everyone else pulled back. 2023 is another record. This time Greek oligarchs are selling their ships to Putin. The EU is in a governance crisis… pic.twitter.com/EOGUYleBOS

— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) November 17, 2023

The U.S. has been actively targeting shipping entities involved in Russian oil trade. In October, sanctions were imposed on tanker owners in Turkey and the UAE carrying Russian oil above the G7’s $60 per barrel price cap. Last week, three additional ships faced sanctions. The price cap, introduced by the G7 in late 2022, aims to limit Russian export revenues, but its enforcement has been cautious due to concerns about potential disruptions in global oil prices.

Three major Greek shipping companies, Minerva Marine, Thenamaris, and TMS Tankers, have ceased transporting Russian oil in recent weeks to avoid US sanctions. They are aimed at targeting shipping firms engaged in the movement of Russian oil.https://t.co/OJnEMXzHDs

— Giuseppe Menefrego (@menefr1) November 24, 2023

Russia’s main export grade, Urals, has consistently traded above the $60 cap, indicating that the measure has not been entirely effective. The three Greek firms, which had been shipping Russian oil for decades, continued their operations even as other Western companies withdrew to avoid escalating sanction risks and the imposition of the price cap.

These shipping routes have proven lucrative, especially when many others abandoned them. Despite the risks, Russian oil trade has brought record revenues to those shippers who remained in the business, supporting Zoltan Pozsar’s prediction from nearly two years ago.

Greek Shippers Exit Russian Oil Trade as U.S. Tightens Price Cap Scrutiny – GCaptain

Freight rates for transporting Russian oil soared to as high as $15 million per tanker voyage from Baltic ports to India last winter, reflecting the elevated risks. The three Greek companies collectively operate more than 100 oil tankers, capable of handling a significant portion of Russia’s European oil exports, amounting to approximately 10 million tons per month or 2.4 million barrels per day.

However, with the exit of these Greek tanker firms from the Russian oil transit market, concerns arise about the potential emergence of a structural deficit in the oil market. While Russia has adapted by relying on its shipping company Sovcomflot and various lesser-known firms registered in countries like the UAE, India, Hong Kong, Seychelles, and Ghana, challenges may intensify if the U.S. tightens restrictions on Russia’s tanker access.

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Presently, Russian oil meant for export is reaching its destinations, albeit with several weeks of delay. Yet, if the U.S. imposes further limits, a point may be reached where available Russian oil can no longer reach buyers, leading to a surge in oil prices and potentially triggering the next commodity crisis.

In conclusion, the decisions of Greek shipping firms to halt Russian oil transportation mark a significant development in the ongoing geopolitical struggle. The repercussions extend beyond the immediate economic impact, potentially shaping the dynamics of global oil markets and geopolitics in the months to come.

Greek shippers exit Russian oil trade to avoid US sanctions https://t.co/rQSYYMWYdO

— Euractiv (@Euractiv) November 24, 2023

Major Points Discussed:

• Three major Greek shipping companies—Minerva Marine, Thenamaris, and TMS Tankers—have recently stopped transporting Russian oil to avoid potential U.S. sanctions on shipping firms involved in Russian oil trade.
• The decision by Greek shippers is seen as a setback for Russia, potentially impacting its oil revenues. Analysts suggest Russia has already been breaching OPEC+ quotas, producing more oil than allowed.
• The U.S. has imposed sanctions on tanker owners carrying Russian oil above the G7’s $60 per barrel price cap. This enforcement is part of Western efforts to limit Russian export revenues, but challenges remain in stabilizing global oil prices.
• Despite the G7’s price cap on Russian oil, key grades like Urals have consistently traded above the $60 limit. The cautious enforcement reflects concerns about potential disruptions in global oil prices if the embargo proves too effective.
• The exit of the three Greek shipping firms raises concerns about a potential structural deficit in the oil market. Russia is adapting by relying on alternative shipping companies, but the situation could escalate if the U.S. imposes further restrictions on Russia’s tanker access.

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Comments – Threads – links

• 3 major Greek shipping companies have stopped transporting Russian oil in recent weeks to avoid US sanctions imposed on individual Russian tankers — Reuters The event is a blow to Russia as it reduces the shipping companies willing to transport Russian oil to its consumers. – Sharky
• Russian fuel is rebranded and sold to a Greek refinery that serves the U.S. military and other countries that have banned the petroleum products, a Post examination finds. – Washington Post
• The USA bought Russian oil for $1 billion through Greek oil refineries and bought a record amount of Russian uranium this year. USA is only looking out for its own interests. They don’t give a sheet about the EU. That is why Orban is almost the ONLY true pro-EU politician today. – Andreas
• Three Greek companies stop transporting Russian oil to avoid sanctions – Reuters – Pravda