The housing market nightmare is getting worse all over America. The downturn that started in the summer of 2022 just triggered the biggest decline in home prices in eleven years! Mortgage companies are now engaging in mass layoffs, real estate economists are warning about a housing recession, and the National Association of Realtors believes that home prices still have much further to fall. In fact, in overvalued markets, homeowners may see the value of their properties drop by half before we enter 2024, according to experts’ estimates. This can translate into a six-digit loss in home equity in just one year. Continued below the video
Conditions are getting eerily similar to the ones that led to the 2008 financial crisis, a famous Big Short investor says. In other words, now we all must keep a close eye the on the reg flags that indicate we’re heading into another disaster. At this point, approximately 37 of the 50 largest markets in the country have already reported double-digit price drops, with homes in some markets falling by up to 25% from their 2022 peak, according to NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun. During an interview with Insider, the expert revealed that home prices will fall by half in overvalued markets, and that’s especially true for metros in the West, where he is forecasting 0% home-price growth in 2023. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that “overheated housing markets in the Southwest and Pacific coast, such as San Jose MSA, Austin MSA, Phoenix MSA, and San Diego MSA will likely grapple with another decline of over 25 percent, presenting a localized risk of higher delinquencies for mortgages originated in 2022 or late 2021.”
A notorious Big Short investor says that once again conditions are pointing to a financial nightmare. Dave Burt, CEO of investment research firm DeltaTerra Capital which helps clients manage risks, was one of the few experts who recognized the housing market was falling apart in 2007. “I’m always on the lookout for big systemic issues and there are a few reasons for that,” Burt told CNBC. The correction that is already in motion will be “very, very damaging within those exposed communities,” Burt warned. Concerns over a housing crash are also panicking investors like Jeff Greene, who made a lot of his wealth during the 2008 recession and is warning about a destructive period across the entire real estate market. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a statement that the current Fed outlook is reminiscent of 2007 before the housing market crashed.
Mortgage applications in the US remain more than 20% lower than a year ago
“This current environment could be eerily similar to early 2007 when the Fed held a tightening bias on rates as they believed the housing market was stabilizing, the economy would continue to expand, and inflation risks remained,” Roach said. “Clearly, those expectations were not met since we know what happened in later quarters. Investors should anticipate some volatility during these months where the economic outlook remains cloudy.” Sadly, even though the drop in prices may be good news for aspiring homebuyers hoping to catch a break, the crash could ultimately wipe out $100,000 of the value of the average home, NAR estimates. This would leave many families with negative home equity, and a mortgage crisis could break out, plunging us into the worst financial crisis in modern times. The red flags are many, and we all should stay alert and carefully watch the new developments of this crisis.
Comments – Links – Threads (All sides)
- Miami ranked least affordable housing market in US – CBS News
- US Housing Market Sees Largest Decline Since 2008 as Broader Crises Loom – Single Master Mind
- US Housing is too expensive… prices will come down, we most likely topped in 2022. This chart shows mortgage payments relative to rents. PTP Chart
- Wall Street’s bullishness right now hinges on ongoing disinflation without a serious slowdown. That’s not a sure thing. Take housing, for example. “Housing prices are going to increase more than people think:” Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel – LA – Bloomberg Link
- Housing in the US continues to be less affordable than it has been in decades. Despite a significant drop in demand, a corresponding decline in supply is keeping home prices stable. Redfin data reveals that May’s 1.37 million homes listed for sale was an all-time low since records began in 2012. Flip (charts)
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